The nomination of Vladimir Putin for a new term is considered as a basic scenario. Preparations for the 2024 campaign have begun in the Kremlin. The scenario for the nomination of Vladimir Putin is currently being discussed as a baseline. The President said that he had not yet decided whether he would run for office, but such a right “already stabilizes the situation”
The Kremlin has begun preparations for the 2024 presidential election. Preliminary discussions on this topic began in the summer, two acquaintances told the source of RBC about the course of the discussion. In particular, it was said that the campaign should be planned not a year in advance, but in advance, says one of the interlocutors of RBC.
At the meetings, where the issue of the presidential election was touched upon in one way or another, they discussed the possible campaign of the incumbent President Vladimir Putin, both sources told RBC. A campaign is being discussed with a specific candidate. There are no other options [at the moment] ', & mdash; one of them emphasized.
At the same time, during the discussions in the Kremlin, it was never said that Vladimir Putin had already decided to go for a new term, both sources said. Accordingly, at the moment it is not clear whether the campaign is being prepared by default, that is, in the absence of other instructions, or the leadership of the presidential administration has an understanding in this regard, added one of the sources of RBC.
Vladimir Putin himself has publicly said that he has not yet made a decision, will run for a new term in 2024. The last time he announced this was during the VTB Capital forum. “ Russia is calling! ''.
“ In accordance with the Constitution, I have the right to be elected for a new term. Whether I did it or not, I have not yet decided for myself. But the very existence of this right already stabilizes the internal political situation, '', & mdash; said the head of state then.
An all-Russian vote on amendments to the Constitution took place in the summer of 2020. The key one was the one proposed by State Duma deputy Valentina Tereshkova, allowing Vladimir Putin to be nominated for a new term.
The possibility of nominating Vladimir Putin for a new term is now really considered as a basic scenario, another source familiar with the discussion of the issue confirmed. According to him, after the elections to the State Duma, which were held in September, the Kremlin set the task to analyze the course of the parliamentary campaign, to understand what mistakes were made and what, on the contrary, succeeded – and mdash; in order to use best practices during the presidential elections and avoid repeating any wrong steps.
Strategy Development Workshop
A possible strategy for the presidential campaign was discussed in the Senezh Management Workshop. in the suburbs from December 16 to 18. There, a seminar was held with the participation of the leadership of the Kremlin's internal political bloc, some of the employees of the three Kremlin departments (on domestic policy, on public projects and on ensuring the activities of the State Council), as well as representatives of United Russia. The party in power was represented by the Secretary of the General Council of the United Russia Andrei Turchak and his deputies. Four sources familiar with the content of the event told RBC about the seminar.
The main topic of the seminar was a possible strategy for the elections in 2024, all interlocutors of RBC said. The name of the potential candidate was not announced at the event, three sources say. However, the participants were told that it was necessary to develop a strategy “ for the presidential elections, '' two sources familiar with the seminar told RBC. In the context of discussing a possible strategy, it was about the continuity of the course, added another interlocutor of RBC.
Ensuring legitimacy was identified as the main task of the presidential elections. In general, the seminar was a brainstorming session, during which it was discussed what the government's strategy should be in various areas in order to be as prepared as possible by 2024, RBC's interlocutors specified.
“ For the presidential administration, the participation of Vladimir Putin in the 2024 elections should be and is the basic scenario. Everything else was strange, '' & mdash; says political scientist Dmitry Badovsky. If the name of the Russian leader really sounds in the context of preparations for the presidential campaign, then this is absolutely logical, he believes, adding that his personal opinion is also that “ the problem of transfer or transit of power in 2024 does not exist: Putin will go to the polls and will be re-elected president. '' This is the starting point for the preparation of the campaign, its strategic planning. ''
Also, according to Badovsky, it is necessary to take into account that “ political time now flows not only very quickly, but also torn & mdash; because of the same pandemic, for example, the prospect of new waves. '' The logic of the political movement is changing, and some things need to be done as soon as possible, using the available time slots in a relatively calm situation, in order to, among other things, be able to take advantage of the existing developments in the event of force majeure, the expert says.
The current president has the opportunity to run for a new term, but the name of the candidate from the government does not matter at this stage, political consultant Yaroslav Ignatovsky believes.
Now, he believes, for the presidential administration, firstly, it is important to analyze the elections to the State Duma. “ Secondly, it only seems that 2024 is still a long way off. In fact, this is not the case. The foreign policy factor is also at work. Thirdly, you need to look at what the regions breathe & mdash; they need to be constantly reminded of the campaign strategy, the legitimacy '', & mdash; says the expert. The two years remaining before the elections will be used to thoroughly prepare certain ideologemes and principles & mdash; for this, the internal political bloc of the Kremlin will work with vice governors, United Russia, political strategists, and the expert community, Ignatovsky lists. The main task & mdash; so that a few months before the elections it turns out that the authorities can get an unpredictable result, he concludes.
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